The security risks of climate change are likely to place stresses on both diplomacy and development.
Diplomacy: As climate change interacts with state fragility, places strains on global food, water and energy supplies, and alters geopolitical dynamics, nations and intergovernmental institutions will need to develop more sophisticated means of addressing these issues. This may include incorporating climate concerns into existing multi-lateral institutions, such as the UN Security Council and the G7, creating new international institutions to address climate-related challenges, and elevating climate security as a priority in bi-lateral relations. Disputes over addressing climate change can also spill over into other areas of international security cooperation, potentially fraying relationships between states and within intergovernmental institutions. However, given that climate change represents a threat to international security, responding to the threat also provides opportunities for increasing cooperation – on climate change and a broader array of issues.
Development: Fragile nations that are already experiencing conflict, extreme poverty, weak institutions of governance, food and water insecurity and persistent diseases, are the most vulnerable to the effects of a changing climate. These nations are also the most likely to experience an increased incidence of conflict as a result of stresses associated with a changing climate. In this context, agencies and international institutions concerned with development will need to ensure that assistance to these nations are climate sensitive, including sensitive to the possible effects of climate change on instability and conflict. Ensuring that climate policies and investments are conflict-sensitive will also be important.
2014: “Global Estimates 2014: People Displaced by Disasters,” Norwegian Refugee Council, Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre
2014: Forced Migration Review. Refugee Studies Centre, University of Oxford
2014: USAID: Climate Change and Conflict, Findings and Lessons Learned from Five Case Studies in Seven Countries
2014: Policy Directive from the Secretary of State
2014: USAID: Climate Change and Conflict in the Sahel, A Policy Brief on Findings from Niger and Burkina Faso
2014: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability: IPCC Working Group II Contribution to AR5
2013: Understanding Climate Diplomacy: Building diplomatic capacity and systems to avoid dangerous climate change. Mabey, N. Gallager, B, Born, C. E3G.
2013: USAID: Climate Change and Conflict in West African Cities, A Policy Brief on Findings from Lagos, Nigeria and Accra, Ghana
2013: Underpinning the MENA Democratic Transition: Delivering Climate, Energy and Resource Security. E3G
2012: USAID Climate Change and Development Strategy, 2012-2016
2012: USAID: Follow the Water, Emerging Issues of Climate Change and Conflict in Peru
2012: Cooperation from Strength: The United States, China and the South China Sea. Cronin, P. et al., Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
2012: Climate Change in UK security policy: implications for development assistance? Harris, K. Overseas Development Institute (ODI)
2011: Climate Threats, Fragility, and Conflict Risk. Office of Conflict Management and Mitigation, Bureau of Democracy, Conflict and Humanitarian Assistance, USAID. Presentation, Woodrow Wilson Center
2011: USAID: Climate Change and Conflict in Pastoralist Regions of Ethiopia, Mounting Challenges, Emerging Responses
2011: USAID: Climate Change and Conflict in Uganda, The Cattle Corridor and Karamoja
2011: First Steps on Human Security and Emerging Risks. Briggs, C. New Security Beat
2011: Livelihood Security: Climate Change, Migration and Conflict in the Sahel. UNEP
2010: Climate Security: Impacts and Opportunities for Transatlantic Relations. Feakin, T. and Depledge, D. Washington, DC: GMF.
2010: Future Landscapes of Conflict or Cooperation? Climate Security Needs Transatlantic Leadership. Taenzler, D. and Carius, A. Washington, DC: GMF.
2010: Locating Climate Insecurity: Where Are the Most Vulnerable Places in Africa? Busby, J. et al. Austin, Texas: The Robert S. Strauss Center
2008: Climate Change: Addressing the Impact on Human Security. Dokos, T. et al. Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy.
2008: Council on Foreign Relations, Confronting Climate Change: A Strategy for U.S. Foreign Policy
2008:Climate Change and Security. Challenges for German Development Cooperation, Carius, A./Tänzler, D./Maas, A. Eschborn: GTZ.
2007: The Age of Consequences: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change, CSIS and CNAS
2007: Climate Change and Foreign Policy. Drexhage, John et al. Winnipeg: International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD).